Tag: climate

  • Cold winter conditions in the Arctic

    Cold winter conditions in the Arctic

    Climate conditions have been negative

    States for 2012 was climate conditions in Scandinavia, Siberia, Alaska and Canada have been colder than average this winter.

    The National Snow and Ice Data Center reports that the Arctic sea ice extent for December 2012 was well below average, driven by anomalously low ice conditions in the Kara, Barents, and Labrador seas.

    NSIDC states that the winter has been dominated by the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, bringing the cold climate around the Arctic.

    The Arctic Oscillation is an Arctic climate index with positive and negative phases, which represents the state of atmospheric circulation over the Arctic. The positive phase brings lower-than-normal pressure over the polar region, steering ocean storms northward, bringing wetter weather to Scotland and Scandinavia, and drier conditions to areas such as Spain and the Middle East.

    Reports today also show that the average temperature for USA for 2012 was above average, showing different climate than in the Arctic, outside of Alaska.

    Sources

    NSIDC

    NOAA 1

    NOAA 2

  • The Northward Shift

    fishing hole in the ice

    Climate change poses both threats and opportunities for Arctic fisheries. Those concerns include indicators of a major ecosystem northward shift, meaning that species will shift northwards in order to find ideal habitat conditions.

    Such shift has ambiguous effects, especially in economical terms, meaning that traditional species that are harvested might leave traditional waters, moving from one Exclusive Economic Zone to another and or into unfishable waters

    Some will lose their ideal habitat, since a northward shift is not infinite and species that are weaker to adjustment will lose in the competition for their ideal habitat. That poses a threat to the traditional commercial fisheries for countries and areas that are economical dependable of traditional fisheries of such species.

    Marine Food Web

    As an example, a northward shift of coldwater specie like capelin might have enormous affect to the biodiversity in the Arctic. Capelin feeds mainly from zoo plankton and is an important food source for many valuable benthic and pelagic species, such as Atlantic cod and Pollock.

    A northward shift of the capelin, due to warmer waters, might therefore affect other stocks significantly, even though warmer waters do not affect those species directly. The basis for growth of the Atlantic cod is capelin and without such important food source the cod needs to find substitute specie, like shrimp (which is also coldwater specie that is moving further north), herring, spawns, fingerlings or other smaller species.

    Species in the higher levels of the Arctic food web need to adapt by finding other food sources or simply move along with the current food source. One direct effect of climate change to one specie might
    therefore affect indirectly too many other species that depend on that species.

  • Trans-Arctic Shipping

    Trans-Arctic Shipping

    Cargo Ship

    The Arctic is comprised of a large ocean area and land areas of eight states: Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Norway (Svalbard), Russia, USA (Alaska), Finland, Sweden and Iceland. The Arctic’s most pronounced feature, at least until very recently, has been the large ice-covered ocean. However, significant changes are taking place in the Arctic area, both on land and especially on the maritime areas.

    The 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment listed the range of impacts that are occurring in a warming Arctic from human-influenced climatic change. The report concluded that the temperature has risen at twice the rate as in the rest of the world in the past few decades and there is increasing evidence of widespread melting of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice.

    The earth’s climate change, due primarily to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, has been particularly intense in the Arctic. These changes have already reduced the extent and thickness of the sea ice in both the Arctic Ocean itself and the sea routes on each side.

    With its fleet of polar icebreakers, Russia has been able to use its Northern Sea Route for up to 6 months a year, although such use has thus far been limited to the support of exploration of its own resources and has not included international shipping. Such shipping, however, is bound to develop within the foreseeable future, particularly since the ice obstacle is not quite as severe on that side of the North Pole.

    Although Trans-Arctic shipping is commonly linked with favourable weather conditions, i.e. warmer climate, ice-free ocean and relatively calm weather, climate is not the only thing that encourages Trans-Arctic shipping.

    Other factors can make it even necessary for future development of the area and the world as a whole. However, those factors can change or even lose their weight in near future but as it stands they dominate the discourse on Trans-Arctic shipping.

    Why Trans Arctic Shipping?

    Currently the main driving force for shipping trough the Arctic Sea is transport of oil or gas from Arctic Russia. The discussion on Trans-Arctic shipping evolves, however, around the issues of global warming, Greenhouse Gas emission restrictions, changes in the geopolitical landscape, possible exploitation of fossil fuel fields in the Arctic and sustainable development in the Arctic. Although those factors do not possess predominant force to encourage Trans-Arctic shipping single-handedly, together they form a great pressure on the global society to prepare for new transportation routes.

    Preparations for ice fishing in Uummannaq, Greenland

    New technologies

    New technologies are important and sometimes essential for development in the Arctic. New ships with icebreaker abilities can shorten the transportation route from Yokohama (Japan) to Rotterdam from 11.212 nm (Suez Canal) to 7.825 nm which is roughly 30% shorter.

    This difference does however not have any relevance still, because the cost of these new ships are at average 150% on top of the cost of a normal new cargo ship.

    This means that it is unlikely that Trans-Arctic shipping can become lucrative, unless oil-price and charges for shipping canals rise and the building cost of Arctic-suitable ships drops.

    However, a significant reduction of sea-ice in the Arctic renders this formula obsolete so it is hard to point a finger on when Trans-Arctic shipping will emerge as a competitive commercial transport alternative.

    It is worth mentioning that technological advancement in the sector of extraction of non-renewable resources can also affect advancement in navigation. It would obviously not have any practical value to be able to pump oil from the seabed in -40°C if no ship would be able to transport the oil from the location.

    However, it is safe to say that this factor is largely dependant on the other factors but might become more important in the coming years. It should however be kept in mind that the race for resources in the Arctic really controls the development in this area.


    United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (adopted 9 May 1992, entered into force 24 March 1994) 31 ILM 849

  • Antarctic Climate Change and Environment

    Antarctic Climate Change and Environment

    Antarctica mapThe first comprehensive review of the state of Antarctica’s climate and its relationship to the global climate system was published in the beginning of December 2009 by the Scientific Committee of Antarctic Research (SCAR).

    The newly published report examines the highly complex relationship of Antarctic environment with the global ecosystem that is increasingly affected by human activity. Already some signs of the changed Antarctic environment had been detected, i.e. the Antarctic ozone hole, but the fact is that the climate change has and will most likely have an unprecedented affect on the Antarctic and thus to us all. For example, contains Antarctica 90% of the world’s ice and 70% of the world’s fresh water, which is enough to raise sea level by 63 m.

    The report draws, however, quite interesting picture of the changing environment in the Antarctic. While the overall surface temperature and ice coverage around the continent have remained the same over the past 30 years, some specific parts of Antarctica are experiencing significant change.

    First, the report points out that for the last 30 years the ozone hole has shielded the bulk of the Antarctic from the effects of the global warming. The report maintains that despite the quite extensive changes in the surface temperature and snowfall around the Antarctic the temperature as well as Antarctic overall snowfall have remained at the same level. It is further notable, that while sea ice extent across the Arctic Ocean has decreased markedly over recent decades, around the Antarctic it has increased by 10% since 1980, particularly in the Ross Sea region. This increase is a result of the stronger winds around the continent, changes in atmospheric circulation and the isolating effect of the ozone hole. This is especially interesting, since the Antarctic Circumpolar Current around the continent has warmed more rapidly than the global ocean as a whole resulting in a major change in the Southern Ocean ecosystem. In recent decades the Ocean has become less effective in absorbing CO2 and ecological key species (such as planktonic snails) are expected to be negatively affected by progressive ocean acidification.

    Antarctic dawnOn the other hand, along with higher temperatures, the Antarctic Peninsula on the west coast of the continent, has experienced a marked switch from snowfall to rain during the summer, which has led to rapid expansion of plant communities and the colonization of newly available land by plants and animals. In addition, there has been significant thinning of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially around the Amundsen Sea Embayment, as well as a few smaller coastal areas in East Antarctica, which has resulted in diminishing Krill stocks and changed distribution of Adélie penguins.

    The report predicts that if greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere doubles over the next century, the Antarctic will warm around 3°. This increase could contribute to a projected total sea level rise of up to 1.4 metres by 2100.

    For further information, please go to the Scientific Committee of Antarctic Research or access the SCAR publications

  • Cop 15 Compilation

    Cop 15 Compilation

    During the UNFCCC COP15 conference 2009 The Arctic Portal covered the event by gathering interesting material and publishing it on it’s site. A compilation of this material can be found here bellow.

    Cop 15The 15th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 15) and the 5th Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol will be held in December 7-18 2009, in Copenhagen, Denmark. The COP15 is of special significance because of the goals set forth in the Bali Road Map, where it was stated that in Copenhagen, a post-Kyoto Protocol action is to be negotiated.

    Here you can follow the COP15 Conference, read the latest news and get information on the most current issues concerning climate change. Climate Change has be identified as one of the key issues of the Polar regions and the outcome of COP 15 therefor highly important.

    Visit the official COP15 website

    Multimedia Content

    Highlights Published daily from Cop15

    For those interested in the presentation of the Greenland Ice Sheet- and Melting Ice-reports at COP15, there was an entire side event was webcasted by the UNFCCC. It has now been published on the UNFCCC website and can be viewed by following clicking the Icon Below

    Icecap banner

    News by date

    16.12.09 Cop 15 President resigns

    Connie HedegaardCOP15 president Connie Hedegaard resigned this morning. Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen will replace her as head of the Conference. Hedegaard has maintained herself that nothing dramatic is behind her resignation and that she will continue her work as a negotiator in the COP15 as a special representative of Mr. Lokke Rasmussen. Over 100 heads of States will arrive to Copenhagen for the last three days of negotiations and it is only natural that the Danish Prime Minister takes over the presidency of the Conference at this point, she said.

    As the stakes are getting higher only three days being left of the Conference, the political pressure is increasing. Developing countries are not satisfied with the draft laid down by the industrialized countries and it seems increasingly difficult to get industrialized countries to agree upon Kyoto-like procedure, where developed countries bear the main responsibility of the emission reduction.

    14.12.09 Climate Talks in Turbulence

    EmissionChina, India and other developing nations boycotted Climate talks today, as a protest and to demand that rich countries discuss a far more extensive cut in their emissions. This is believed to include 135 nations, which will refuse to participate in any formal working groups until the issue was resolved. This has to bee seen as a setback for the talks, and illustrates the long-term dispute between rich and poor nations over emissions cuts and financing cuts to deal with climate change. This has however not been interpreted as the talks are falling apart al together but rather as a ploy intended to move the agenda to the responsibilities of the industrial countries before the arrival of over 100 world leaders are scheduled to arrive in Copenhagen.

    14.12.09 Protest in Copenhagen

    Activists

    More than 200 Protestors were arrested in Copenhagen on Sunday. Approximately 1000 protesters from across Europe were present, the crowd started targeting the Danish shipping giant Moller-Maersk which is when the Police decided to intervene. When some of the activists refused to cooperate an entire group of 200 people were arrested including a times reporter. The protesters were moved to a warehouse in Valby which has been set up with contemporary holding cells. A police spokeswoman confirmed around 200 arrest and pointed out that it was an illegal demonstrations and that some of the activists brought gas masks and things to throw. Yesterday 968 protesters where arrested during a mass march on the summit venue yesterday afternoon, out of these 968 all but 13 have been released.

    10.12.09

    civil societySo far the major issues around the Copenhagen COP15 have concentrated on the participation of world leaders to one of the biggest gathering in the field of environmental law and politics. The aim is to reach an agreement on post-Kyoto CO2 emission reduction. Many leading scientists maintain that the world’s CO2 rate has reached dangerous levels and that if nothing is done to reduce the emissions the world will face unprecedented consequences. Legally binding agreement for the world’s leading polluters is inevitably necessary, but it is debatable whether the political will of states is enough to create any change.

    In addition to the politicians, Copenhagen has attracted a vast amount of representatives from different fields of civil society. In recent years, many global movements have been created around the action against climate change and many of them have now gathered to Copenhagen. On Wednesday a small group of activists from 350 movement demonstrated outside the conference hall demanding fair and legally binding climate deal. Further, members from other global movements, such as Tck and many others are gathering to People’s Climate Summit, an NGO Summit, to draft what they call “A People’s Declaration”.

    Despite the huge pressure to seal the deal in Copenhagen, some doubts have been expressed on whether the solutions that are on the table are the best ones and whether they actually solve any of the problems. Just last week one of the leading climate change scientists James Hansen from Nasa’s Goddard Institute, expressed his doubts on the existing emission trade system comparing it to selling indulgences. He claimed that under the Kyoto mechanisms rich countries buy cheap emission credits from developing countries contributing that way to the existing economic unbalance in the world and some of the worst poverty scenarios. Further, it has been maintained that the Kyoto mechanisms do not actually address the real problem, the CO2 emission, but are one more scam for large corporations to gain money.

    Here below you can watch Annie Leonard’s provocative and eye-opening short film on cap and trade, the main mechanism in use to combat CO2 pollution.

    [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pA6FSy6EKrM]

    09.12.09 Danish Draft Leaked to Media

    LarslokkeGuardian / cop15.dk – There seems to be a great change coming in the climate change negotiations, after the “Danish” draft of an agreement was leaked to media yesterday. The developing countries accuse the draft of being a legalisation of the developing / industrialized division in the world and contributing to the already existing problems in the developing countries. The UNFCCC head Yvo de Boer on the other hand said that only an informal paper is in question and that formal proposals will be only provided by the Chairs of the Conference.

    It will be though interesting to see if the text of the “draft” gives any hint of what can be expexted on behalf of the industrialized countries and whether the so much talked about political will is actually only a wishful thinking. What is sure is that the negotiations are of crucial importance for the global community and a just and equal agreement should be reached for the benefit of us all.

    04.12.09 Climate Investment funds

    pollutionNow when almost all the major players have announced their emission reduction targets, the talk has turned to money and the ways the battle against climate change can be financed. The US has proposed that a new climate fund should be established under the World Bank, which would direct funding to climate projects in developing countries. Further, the Asian Development Bank intends to direct 700 million dollars to two new investment funds that will primarily concentrate on financing climate change projects in developing countries. In short term, it has been estimated, that some 10 billion dollars are needed to cover the costs of the most current developments. In long term, some 100 billion dollars a year might be needed to cover the costs of climate change adaptation.

    04.12.09

    Arctic CouncilArctic Council – During the COP15, December 7- December 18, an Arctic Venue will be held at The North Atlantic Quay in Copenhagen. In the Venue, Arctic cooperation and the latest Arctic research will be introduced as well as the Arctic reality as it appears today to the Arctic residents presented in various exhibitions, booths, posters, lectures and debates. The Quay itself will be wrapped up as an iceberg, an installation designed by Greenlandic artist Inuk Silis Høegh.The Venue is open daily during the COP15 between 12.00-18.00.

    (image: Arctic Council)

    04.12.09 Call for New Climate Change Solutions

    James HansenThe Times – As aspired as a new global climate change agreement in Copenhagen is, it has begun to seem that an agreement with almost any content is enough. One of the world’s leading climate change scientists, James Hansen from Nasa’s Goddard Institute, has expressed his doubts on the existing emission trade system comparing it to selling indulgences. Rich countries buy emission credits from developing countries with relatively small amounts and contribute that way to the existing economic inbalance between industrialized and developing countries. The system in itself is not designed to reduce emissions, but rather to create an image of reduction and equality, though failing in both. Very few open discussions have taken place on what exactly should be the content of the new agreement and little or none public evaluation on the success or failure of the Kyoto protocol has taken place.

    Recently, the UN carbon trade management body suspended Chinese wind power farm plans due to the lack of “additionality”, a condition that is required for any project to qualify as a “Clean Development Mechanism”. It is suspected that China has used the CDM system to finance projects that would have in any case been constructed, thus not adding any clean energy mechanisms through the investment into already planed energy scheme.

    It is clear that before further steps are taken in global climate change discourse, the mechanisms existing today must be evaluated and new and better solutions developed to enable a real battle against the world wide problem of global warming.

    04.12.09 COP15 Participants from Arctic Countries

    Cop 15Already 65 world leaders have confirmed their attendance to the COP15 in Copenhagen in two weeks. What is, however, still unclear is whether the heads of states of the world’s top three carbon polluters – USA, China and India – will attend. The Arctic countries are well represented in the climate change conference, since in addition of being hosted by Denmark, the conference will attract JIm Prentice, the Minister of the Environment and Michael Martin, Chief Negotiator and Ambassador for Climate Change from Canada and Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir, Prime Minister and Svandís Svavarsdóttir, the Minister of the Environment from Iceland. In addition, Finland will send both the Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen and the President Tarja Halonen in association with Paula Lehtomaki, the Minister of the Environment and Jan Vapaavuori, the Minister for Housing and Nordic Cooperation.

    Sweden and Norway are yet to announce their delegation, but they are as well expected to send a high-profile delegation.

  • Call for New Climate Change Solutions

    Call for New Climate Change Solutions

    James Hansen

    The Times – As aspired as a new global climate change agreement in Copenhagen is, it has begun to seem that an agreement with almost any content is enough.

    One of the world’s leading climate change scientists, James Hansen from Nasa’s Goddard Institute, has expressed his doubts on the existing emission trade system comparing it to selling indulgences. Rich countries buy emission credits from developing countries with relatively small amounts and contribute that way to the existing economic imbalance between industrialised and developing countries. The system in itself is not designed to reduce emissions, but rather to create an image of reduction and equality, though failing in both. Very few open discussions have taken place on what exactly should be the content of the new agreement and little or none public evaluation on the success or failure of the Kyoto protocol has taken place.

    Recently, the UN carbon trade management body suspended Chinese wind power farm plans due to the lack of “additionality”, a condition that is required for any project to qualify as a “Clean Development Mechanism”. It is suspected that China has used the CDM system to finance projects that would have in any case been constructed, thus not adding any clean energy mechanisms through the investment into already planed energy scheme.

    It is clear that before further steps are taken in global climate change discourse, the mechanisms existing today must be evaluated and new and better solutions developed to enable a real battle against the world wide problem of global warming.

  • Arctic Energy

    In the recent years, the world’s attention has turned to the Arctic, not least because of its vast energy resources. Due to the climate change and its significant impact to the Arctic environment resources that have long been unreachable are becoming feasible for exploitation. It is estimated that up to fifth of the world’s undiscovered petroleum resources are to be found in the Arctic while the Arctic’s share of the worlds known resources today is around 12%.

    Russia is by far the most important gas producer in the Arctic. Almost all proven Arctic gas reserves are located in Northern Russia as well as 90% of the proven oil reserves. Together produce Northern Russia and Alaska 97% of the total Arctic oil and gas the Arctic’s total global share of production being around 16%. Furthermore, Russia is considered to contain by far the largest volume of the undiscovered petroleum reserves. Other significant regions where petroleum is to be found are Alaska and the Norwegian Sea, which will in future introduce new oil producing states within the Arctic, namely Greenland and Iceland.

    In the face of the petroleum race in the Arctic, some concerns have been raised about the very fragile Arctic environment. In addition to the actual drilling, transportation of the petroleum will impose the Arctic environment to a severe threat in case of an oil spill or shipwreck.

    Even though the conventional petroleum industry is still today dominant in the Arctic, some renewable energy developments are also taken place in the Arctic. The renewable energy sector is however still quite small compared to the conventional one, but can be expected to grow in the future.

    The newly published  Arctic Energy Portal aims at providing a comprehensive information gateway to the Arctic energy projects, new developments and controversies concerning the resource exploitation. At present, the Portal will concentrate mostly on oil and gas, but as new projects and developments take place in renewable energy sector the Portal will broaden its scope of information and cover renewable sector as well.